givewell talk:
funding freeze aid work.
givewell has not responded to changes in the past, disasters - “ongoing everyday”.
these news is affecting the ongoing everyday
now the data is “the news” - less certain
confidential information
concensus emerging that there will be cuts to global funding
us coverment $15-20 B / global helath. HIV, tuberculus malaria.
stop work on all grants and contracts, even those that were already funded 75% through usaid
payment systems frozen, no money frozen, even if there was waiver
- uncertainty
- what happens after the 90-day freeze
total global health funding is aroung $60 B - US 1/4 to 1/3.
givewell $350M/y.
One example of a specific gap:
PMI Presedent’s Malaria Initiative. Coordinating planning for upcoming malaria campaigns. Seasonal. Big coordination. 11 countries that are paused right now.
Even if this funding is unpaused, won’t have the time to execute those campaigns in time.
It’s not known where some commodities are right now malaria drugs - where in a warehouse?
It’s not known if it is legal to give the bed nets out.
Utter chaos.
Why don’t we know where the drugs are?
Data systems are down. One data funder has basically stopped operations.
One directive interpreted as a gag order, no discussions with external parties.
Staff are gone - don’t even know who to call.
Most PMI
high-impact malaria programming is . The lack of support right now means countries aen’t able to turn on interventions .
What does this mean for the rest of this year?
Malaria programming is incredibly cost effective. Cost of delivery is low
Givewell is looking at urgent gaps created by the pause.
they will have to increase their threshold
shortest term, next few weeks; prioritizing
$250,000 grant to CHAI
where or why it’s not obvious that a grant should be made
hypothesis that there might be a bunch of small
because of staff leaves, plug a gap and nobody there to take things forward
hard to find the people to
UNICEF - largely funded by USAID. Theraputic food 70% reduction in mortality rate. Already a lack of that food moving. Some manufacterrs have reieceved wavers, implementing orgs haven’t reieceved wavers, IRC has closed some feeding
Make really hard decisions - if we’re in a place where we need to the emotional difficult
need for deep analysis to make sure dollars go further
many practitioners don’t realize what parts of their . collecting samples . Lab is seen as health infrastructure, it’s . it wasn’t obvious to us how US gov funding was underlying.
will have impact on economies of scale, drive up impacts.
concerns about backfilling, it might not come back
what individuals should do:
- we are doing our best to find ways to put money to work
gw - if money comes in, we will hold onto
shift from top charities to all grants fund.
more likely that we make a mistake, because we know less
orders of magnitude
PMI is $800 million
$5 to PEPFAR
within that bucket there are more effective / efficient
waivers are too specific, don’t give the org the confidence to move forward, even if the money
qualify for a waiver, but the money doesn’t come through, did the work with cash reserves,
regulations on minimal overhead mean they don’t have any reserves
UK is considering cuts to GABI
canary in the coalmine.
the countries involved have deficits, obligations to IMF.
$60 M to funding gaps in terms of short term
probably sub $40 for urgent gaps.
why are we only hearing about $60M -
in the not-to-distant future gaps may be so large by 3 months
with more money give more, and give more more quickly.
$5000/life was the threshold, but that threshold will drop in the next few months
some could argue, give more, give now,